Jerome R. Corsi, Ph.D.
March 29, 2020
COVID-19 Update
Dr. Fauci, in an article published in the New England Journal on March 26, 2020,
pointed out COVID-19 is no more potent than the typical seasonal flu. He wrote:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic
cases are several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case
The fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall
clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a
severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately
0.1%) or pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather
then a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates
of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
But the concern in this virus has been to keep it from spreading, hence, the
imposition of quarantine schemes in affected countries. Fauci continued:
The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important
implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study
indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 2.2, which
means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an
additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below
1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread.
By contrast, the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was much more severe in producing
illness and death. Consider this recently published article comparing H1N1 in
2009 with COVID-19:
The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009, to April 10, 2010, there were
60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in
the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400
people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year. Unusually, about 80%
of the deaths were in people younger than 65 years of age.
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In 2009, the old had developed immunity to H1N1 given prior exposure to various
stains of a similar disease. The recent comparison article continues:
The virus in the 2009 pandemic is considered to be quite different from the
typical H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time. Dubbed
