The numbers spin – Jobs Report is dismal, stocks plummet

Editor’s Note – The numbers are in, and again – its not pretty. Now comes the spin, the blame, the stump speeches, the talking points, and the twisted logic. As always, SUA asks: “Who do you believe”?

Below is an article from the NY Times, why, so you can see the spin, following that is a CNN Money report, with real numbers and analysis in the article that follows it below. How sad, CNN is more trustworthy than the NY Times? Compare:

NY Times aims here:

“I don’t know whether it is because American voters are myopic, or because they are forward-looking,” said Andrew Gelman, the director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. “But they appear to care most about change in the economy in the year preceding the election,” rather than the state of the economy over an incumbent president’s first four years.

“Throughout history, it has typically taken countries up to 10 years to recover from financial crises of this magnitude,” Mr. Obama said recently, noting the sustained recessions in Europe. He added, “Our economy started growing again six months after I took office, and it has continued to grow for the last three years.”

CNN Money sites this:

“It’s hard for an employer to hire somebody when you don’t know what the tax rates are going to be in six months. There’s just too much uncertainty,” said John Silvia, Wells Fargo chief economist.

June’s weak growth added to fears that the recovery is waning. The economy needs at least 125,000 jobs added each month just to keep up with population growth. It needs even more to bring the unemployment rate down

If Obama were not still buoyed by the MSM, and treated like a rock star, although a flash-in-the-pan has been, he would be pummeled for the extremely bad job of “leading” America. Any other person – or more precisely – any Republican President would need constant triage for the wounds he would receive, and a dedicated fire crew to put out the flames.

Yeah, the ‘community organizer’ was prepared for this job, now wasn’t he? All that experience in real world economics – translated to what? Hope and change for that ‘fundamental change’ of America. He certainly has achieved that! How can anyone justify voting for a complete failure? But that is racist,correct?

Stakes for Jobs Figures Rise as Voters’ Views Start to Solidify

By ANNIE LOWREY and JOHN HARWOOD – NY Times

WASHINGTON — Economists are slashing their already tepid growth forecasts. The unemployment rate seems stuck at around 8 percent. It is a tense time for the American economy. It is also the time that some experts believe the country’s undecided voters are beginning to cement their presidential picks.

That is why many political scientists and consultants consider Friday’s jobs report and the ones immediately following it to be so important — perhaps more so than those of the previous three years.

“I don’t know whether it is because American voters are myopic, or because they are forward-looking,” said Andrew Gelman, the director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. “But they appear to care most about change in the economy in the year preceding the election,” rather than the state of the economy over an incumbent president’s first four years.

Some narrow the critical period even more, arguing that what happens from April until October of an election year weighs especially heavily on voters’ minds.

“It’s difficult to sort out the electoral effects of specific slivers of economic conditions,” said Larry M. Bartels, a Vanderbilt University professor of political science. But he cited the economic climate of the middle of the election year as unusually important — a time when even wavering voters begin to lock in decisions on the presidential race and lock out conflicting reports about the economy.

This political reality is not lost on the Obama and Romney campaigns, which have sparred over the state of the economy to the near exclusion of every other issue.

Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, has centered his campaign on the notion that President Obama’s incompetence as an economic steward has made recovery weaker than it need have been — with unemployment too high and job growth too slow.

Mr. Obama has countered that Mr. Romney’s business record at Bain Capital epitomizes the profits-at any-cost philosophy that has cut middle-class jobs. As for his own record, he argues that pushing the 2009 stimulus program through Congress has helped the economy rebound and that without it, the nation would be in worse economic straits.

“Throughout history, it has typically taken countries up to 10 years to recover from financial crises of this magnitude,” Mr. Obama said recently, noting the sustained recessions in Europe. He added, “Our economy started growing again six months after I took office, and it has continued to grow for the last three years.”

Read the rest here - NY Times - if you can stomach it. read the following for a more candid understanding of what the numbers mean:

June jobs report: Hiring weak, unemployment unchanged

By Annalyn Censky – CNNMoney

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Hiring was lukewarm last month, with employers adding jobs but not enough to bring the unemployment rate down.

The economy added 80,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department reported Friday, barely an improvement from the 77,000 jobs added in May. The unemployment rate remained at 8.2%.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney had expected to see employers add 95,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

The labor market has been volatile this year, with job growth starting off strong in the first couple months of 2012. Then a disappointing slowdown in the spring led many to wonder whether the recovery was taking a turn for the worse.

Economists have attributed the strong hiring in the winter to unusually warm weather. Now they say fears about Europe’s debt crisis, China’s slowdown and fiscal cliff looming in the United States are holding employers back.

“It’s hard for an employer to hire somebody when you don’t know what the tax rates are going to be in six months. There’s just too much uncertainty,” said John Silvia, Wells Fargo chief economist.

June’s weak growth added to fears that the recovery is waning. The economy needs at least 125,000 jobs added each month just to keep up with population growth. It needs even more to bring the unemployment rate down.

Other recent reports have shown retail sales are slowing, the manufacturing sector is contracting and consumer confidence has fallen.

“Today’s report is the rotten cherry atop the half-baked economic news of the last few months,” Chris Jones, economist with TD Bank said in a note.

On the upside, the housing market seems to be improving, with both home prices and home sales rising recently. Construction companies added 2,000 jobs in June. While that’s not much, it’s still the first time since January that the economy has added construction jobs.

Revisions from previous months showed the overall economy gained 1,000 fewer jobs in April and May than originally thought.

Among the sectors adding jobs, manufacturers hired 14,000 workers, professional and business services added 47,000 jobs, and restaurants and bars added 15,100 jobs.

Meanwhile, retailers slashed 5,400 jobs and the government cut 4,000 jobs.

Workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher had a 4.1% unemployment rate, whereas workers with just a high school degree had an 8.4% rate.

“We continue to hear from companies that it’s a two-tier labor market,” said Brian Kropp, managing director at the Corporate Executive Board. “For people who have been employed with professional and technical skills, it’s a decent job market. But for the rest of the workforce it’s still very difficult.”

Overall, the job market has a long way to go to climb out of the deep hole left by the financial crisis. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost, only about 3.8 million have been added back.

Roughly 12.7 million Americans remain unemployed, and 41.9% of them have been so for six months or more.

The so-called underemployment rate rose to 14.9% in June. That rate includes the unemployed as well as people who could only get part-time positions and who have looked for a job at some point in the past year.

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