Editor’s Note – It cannot be said enough, and SUA has reported this point so often – there is no credibility left in government numbers under the current administration. The September decline of the unemployment rate to 7.8% has now been proven to be wildly off.
Jack Welch famously tweeted his disbelief and was roundly criticized, but no one is laughing as the naysayers are now proven wrong. We at SUA openly supported Jack Welch’s assessment, and now we see that not only did one big state (California) not report on time, the actual creation of jobs in September was HALF of what was reported according to ADP.
Now we approach the Friday report for October – one that may be delayed due to “Super-Sandy”, yet we have to question everything now – and isn’t it all to convenient since the voting ends on Tuesday, November 6, 2012? Late word as of this posting indicates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 am on Friday after conflicting reports the last two days. Early word indicates the rate is going back up!
BUT – beware the “say and do anything to get re-elected” crowd.
By Jeff Cox – CNBC
Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.
ADP’s new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.
The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody’s Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.
The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor’s September job creation total of 114,000. The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent, but the government said the total number of new workers swelled by 873,000. (Read More: Consumer Prices Rise on Energy Surge; No Pay Gains)
Economists expect Friday’s report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.
When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.
The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government’s numbers indicate.
“It’s huge, no doubt about it,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. “Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we’re going to see Friday is going to be a disaster.”
Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch caused a skirmish when he said in Twitter, “Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything…can’t debate so change numbers.” (Read More: Jack Welch Defends His Jobs Report Comments (Again))
ADP will announce its October count on Thursday, with the Labor Department to follow on Friday.
ADP usually releases its report on the Wednesday preceding the first Friday of the month, but held off because of damage from Hurricane Sandy. The firm is expected to announce a further revision to the September count along with its October totals. (Read More: Damage From Sandy? What About Potential Economic Boost?)
In announcing the partnership Oct. 24, the two firms said the partnership will help align the private sector job count with the Labor numbers.
At the same time, the new reports will provide a more detailed breakdown of the numbers while expanding the total of businesses that participate.
ADP occasionally has come under criticism for releasing data that is often widely disparate with the government’s final count.